A toss-up. Just a day before the general election, The Senate Race is coming down to the wire. In order to regain control of the Senate, Democrats need to gain five seats from the Republicans or four seats (three or four, with Illinois all but guaranteed for the Democrats) and the White House (because the Vice President votes in the event of a tie). Most prominently, Democrats regaining control of the Senate will have an enormous impact on who is picked to replace Justice Scalia. A Democrat-controlled Senate would greatly influence the bills that get passed as well, and would counter a Republican majority in the House of Representatives. Here are the closest races that will determine which party controls the Senate in 2017.
Wisconsin
Predictions : RCP Average (D +2.7) 538 (D 80.4%) NYT (D 72%)
In the Wisconsin race, former Democratic Senator Russ Feingold attempts to reclaim his seat from incumbent Republican Ron Johnson. After taking Feingold’s seat in the 2010 Republican sweep 51-47, Johnson has had a rough first term, insulting those who use student loans and Obamacare, as well as referring to Muslims in the US as “those people.” Johnson’s net approval rate in a recent Marquette University poll was -2, paling in comparison to Feingold’s +17. Yet Feingold has also faced criticism, particularly for his sudden shift in positions. After refusing most outside funds in 2010 in an effort to support campaign finance reform, Feingold has changed drastically and has accepted over 15 million dollars. However, as the race appears to lean Democratic in most polling, Republicans have redirected funding for Johnson to other races believed to be more competitive while Feingold has received a last minute gift of 2 million dollars from the main Democratic super PAC, making this race one of the most likely opportunities for a Democratic flip.
Pennsylvania
Predictions : RCP Average (D +2.0) 538 (D 60.3%) NYT (D 67%)
This extraordinarily close race is between incumbent Republican Pat Toomey, and Democrat Kate McGinty, former Chief of Staff to current Governor of Pennsylvania Tom Wolf. Pennsylvania has been a strong leaning Democratic state in recent years and won by Democrats in every presidential election since 1992. However, in the Republican sweep of 2010, Pat Toomey was able to barely take the seat with a 2 point margin, contrary to its typical lean. Gun control became an important issue for Pennsylvanians after the Orlando shootings when Toomey voted against gun control legislation, and has been criticised by both parties separately for gun laws regarded as either too strict by Republicans, or too lax by Democrats. His moderate status on gun control and other issues is further supported by the endorsement of well known Independent billionaire Michael Bloomberg, who has also spoken up against Trump. McGinty on the other hand is well known for her strong stances on environmental issues and has worked with powerful people in Pennsylvania politics despite never serving in an elected office. All of this adds up to a very close race.
Nevada
Predictions : RCP Average (D +0.4) 538 (D 52.7%) NYT (D 62%)
Republican Joe Heck faces off against Nevada’s former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto for the seat of the retiring Harry Reid (D). Heck has served in the U.S. Army Reserve since 1991, and is currently a member of Nevada’s House of Representatives. Though he is aligned with his Party on most issues, voting against regulations on both gun sales and greenhouse gas emissions, he has broken Party lines before on the issue of immigration. Supporting the Dream Act, and voting against a bill that would have dismantled the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy, Heck is considered quite moderate regarding immigration. Heck also criticized Trump for his demeaning comments toward Mexican Immigrants and will consequently look for some support from the Latino demographic in the general election. Cortez Masto, however, will rely on Latino voters too as she looks to be the first Latina Senator in U.S. history. Trying to dissuade Latinos from voting for her opponent, Cortez Masto has said that Heck still supports Trump and only revoked his support of him (on October 8th) out of an attempt to save his political career. She has also claimed that Heck is identical to Trump on immigration (though he is not, as fact-checked by PolitiFact, and illustrated earlier). Also importantly, Heck’s withdrawal of support from Trump might actually lose him more Republican voters than it will gain him. According to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted from October 10-11, 34% of probable voters are less likely to vote for Heck because of his withdrawal of support from Trump, as opposed to only 17% who said that they were more likely to vote for him because of his stance on the Presidential Nominee. Consequently, Heck must tiptoe carefully moving forward as he looks for the approval of moderate and Latino voters, while trying to maintain support from steadfast Trump supporters at the same time.
New Hampshire
Predictions : RCP Average (R +1.5) 538 (R 50.2%) NYT (D 53%)
Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte is challenged by Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan in yet another close race in New Hampshire. Governor Hassan is perhaps one of the most popular and qualified Democratic candidates of this election season and ran unopposed in the Democratic primary this year. Senator Ayotte has immense support from her party as well, winning the Republican primary by more than 60 points and garnering nearly 80% of the vote. As both candidates were quite popular during their respective primaries, the candidates have each directed a lot of their attention towards New Hampshire’s pivotal independent vote. Ayotte has emphasized that she has “one of the most bipartisan records in the Senate,” also stressing that she has worked with the independent group No Labels in the past. She has also tried to distance herself from Presidential Candidate Donald Trump, condemning Trump for his comments about women and refusing to endorse him. Hassan, on the other side, has tried to link Ayotte to the Presidential Nominee in an attempt to dissuade voters who do not support Trump from voting for Ayotte. Hassan has continually criticized Ayotte for calling Trump a role model in a debate in August, and for how long she took to finally declare that she would not vote for Trump (she announced her intentions to vote for Mike Pence instead of Trump on October 8th). As Hassan tries to prove her opponent’s likeness to Trump, and Ayotte tries to prove the contrary, Ayotte is fighting a battle of public perception leading up to the Election. Further, Ayotte must maintain support of the Republican voters who support Trump (who won the New Hampshire Republican Primary by 100,000 votes) even as she targets those who do not. Winning her race is therefore even more difficult as Ayotte must win the support of two considerably different demographics of voters.
Missouri
Predictions : RCP Average (R +1.3) 538 (R 59.3%) NYT (R 61%)
In one of the most surprisingly close senate races of the year, Incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt faces off against Democratic Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander. Blunt should have had an easy time in this Republican leaning state, however his approval rating is very low, while Kander is a charismatic army veteran. These factors have lead to a very contentious race. One of Blunt’s attacks on Kander has been that he does not support the second amendment, to which Kander released a now viral ad of him assembling an AR-15 blindfolded. Kander, on the other hand, has sought to portray Blunt as out of touch with middle class voters. Kander who campaigns across Missouri in his family SUV has joked, “Senator Blunt I’ve heard has a very nice jet but this [SUV] is comfy.” If Kander is able to take Missouri, this would be a large step in the Democrats taking back the senate.
Indiana
Predictions : RCP Average (R +0.7) 538 (R 70.7%) NYT (R 57%)
The consistently red state of Indiana unexpectedly became a hotly contested race after the retirement of Senator Dan Coats this year. The race is between Republican, former Marine and current Representative Todd Young and Democrat, former Governor and Senator Evan Bayh. Bayh’s nomination this election was a surprise; he was selected after former Representative Baron Hill dropped out soon after gaining the Democratic nomination, and Bayh stepped in. His reentry into politics was another surprise after Bayh retired from the Senate in 2010, citing his disappointment with partisan politics in Washington. The Bayh family is well known in Indiana as Evan Bayh’s father was a popular three term senator there. Young, on the other hand, has solid support from the GOP and now even has George W. Bush out campaigning for him. The race has turned to very negative campaigning, and while Bayh has maintained a lead in polling most of the race, recently the gap has closed completely.
North Carolina
Predictions : RCP Average (R +2.2) 538 (R 75.1%) NYT (R 62%)
Deborah Ross, a lawyer, and a former member of the North Carolina House of Representatives, challenges Republican Incumbent Richard Burr in North Carolina. Both candidates are aligned with their respective parties on most issues like gun control, national security, and health care, making the differences in policy between the candidates relatively clear cut based on party lines. The central piece of legislation discussed in the race has been North Carolina’s largely disputed bill, HB2. This bill inhibits local governments from creating laws that prevent employers from firing people based on their sexual orientation and requires transgender people to go to the bathroom reflected by the sex on their birth certificate, rather than the gender they identify with. The bill is overall unpopular, with a Public Policy Polling poll on May 24 showing that more North Carolinians do not support the bill than do (45/34). Ross has consequently attacked Burr on the bill, which the Republican Party composed and passed. Importantly, however, while more independent voters want the bill repealed than those who do not (46/39), the majority of Republicans still support HB2. This left Burr in a tough position as he was forced to decide whether he would support the bill and risk losing moderate and independent voters, or contest it and risk losing the Republican majority that had supported HB2. Likely in an attempt to maintain the support of both groups of voters, Burr ended up somewhere in the middle on the bill, supporting HB2 in general but saying it was too expansive in its restrictions in a Senate Debate on October 14. In a similar manner, Burr has approached the issue of Donald Trump quite cautiously. In the debate, he said that he was not going to “defend Donald Trump, what he said, or his actions. But when I look at our choice, it’s not even close for me. I’m going to support my nominee.” Ross took a similar approach on addressing Clinton, supporting the candidate yet stating that she believes “the way Hillary Clinton handled her emails was inappropriate.” Trying to distinguish their views on bills like HB2, and their parties Presidential Nominees, Ross and Burr are fighting for approval in one of the closest races in the country.
Florida
Predictions : RCP Average (R +3.7) 538 (R 90.5%) NYT (R 84%)
In Florida, incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio is facing off against Democratic Representative Patrick Murphy. Rubio had initially announced his intention not to run for Senate again after dropping of the presidential race. However, in June Rubio reversed this decision and immediately gained vast support in the Republican Primary polls; he easily took the nomination. However, after losing the Florida primary election badly to Trump, Rubio has made it clear that he will likely run again for the presidency in 2020. Murphy has tried to attack Rubio on gun control, an important issue to Floridians after the Orlando shootings, yet Rubio has kept a consistent lead. Because of this the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee has cut-off financial support to Murphy, believing it would be better spent in states like North Carolina and Missouri. While Rubio has a clear advantage in Florida, polling has been mixed with some even showing the race tied, and Clinton has a consistent lead over Trump in Florida, leaving anything possible.
